作者:朱清君 辛艳艳 发布时间:2026-11-07 21:34:23 来源:欧洲儿童与青少年精神病学+收藏本文
朱清君,辛艳艳:《城市化与孤独感在青少年自杀风险中的网络位置:跨越87个国家的四阶段分析》,载《欧洲儿童与青少年精神病学》(European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry)。
摘要/Abstract
孤独感是公认的青少年自杀意念相关因素,但既有跨国研究主要关注其与自杀行为的平均关联,尚不清楚孤独感在更广泛的自杀风险网络中的位置是否随社会背景而变化。本研究利用世界卫生组织全球学校学生健康调查(GSHS)覆盖87个国家的横断面数据(总样本量为439,026人,女性占52.1%),通过网络估计、跨区域预测迁移、宏观指标筛选与多层建模,以及国家层面的网络边分析四个阶段,考察孤独感网络位置和预测重要性的跨国差异。结果显示,自杀意念在各区域网络中均位居核心节点之列。跨区域预测的平均曲线下面积(AUC)比区域内训练集表现低17.3个百分点;孤独感的预测重要性在不同区域间差异最大。在11项国家宏观指标中,城市化水平与孤独感的模型预测重要性关联最强(Spearman r = .655,错误发现率校正后 p < .001)。个体层面的多层模型显示,在城市化程度较高的国家,孤独感与自杀意念的关联更强(交互项OR = 1.096,95% CI [1.053, 1.140])。国家层面网络分析也显示,城市化水平与“孤独感—自杀意念”的边权重呈正相关(Spearman r = .639)。这些结果提示,在城市化程度较高的社会背景下,孤独感可能与青少年自杀风险联系更紧密。
Loneliness is a well-established correlate of adolescent suicidal ideation, yet prior cross-national studies have mainly quantified average associations with suicidal behavior. Less is known about whether loneliness occupies the same position within broader suicide-risk networks across societal contexts. Using cross-sectional data from the public World Health Organization Global School-based Student Health Survey from 87 countries (N = 439,026; 52.1% female), we examined cross-national variation in the network position and predictive role of loneliness. Stage-specific samples were 317,141 adolescents from 64 countries for network estimation, 333,940 adolescents for prediction transfer, 42 countries for feature-importance screening, 296,863 adolescents from these countries for multilevel models, and 38 countries for edge analyses. Suicidal ideation was consistently among the most central nodes, but prediction models transferred poorly across regions, with a 17.3 percentage-point loss in area under the curve. Loneliness showed the greatest cross-context variation among predictors. Across 11 macro-level indicators, national urbanization had the strongest association with loneliness's model-based importance (Spearman r = .655, p < .001 after false discovery rate correction). Individual-level models indicated a stronger association between loneliness and suicidal ideation in more urbanized countries (odds ratio = 1.096, 95% confidence interval [1.053, 1.140]), and country-level network models revealed stronger loneliness-suicidal-ideation edges where urbanization was higher (Spearman r = .639). These findings suggest that loneliness may become more tightly connected to adolescent suicide risk in more urbanized social contexts.
关键词/Key Words
青少年自杀;网络分析;城市化;跨文化比较;孤独感;全球学生卫生调查
Adolescent suicide;Network analysis;Urbanization;Cross-cultural comparison;Loneliness; Global School-based Student Health Survey
作者/Authors
朱清君
复旦大学心理学系博士研究生
辛艳艳(通讯作者)
复旦大学发展研究院助理研究员
期刊信息/Journal Information 《欧洲儿童与青少年精神病学》(European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry)是欧洲儿童与青少年精神病学学会(ESCAP)官方学术月刊,由Springer出版。该刊聚焦儿童青少年精神障碍与心理发展研究,同时被SSCI和SCIE收录,五年影响因子(2025年)为6.3,是位列JCR Q1的国际权威核心期刊。
文章下载链接/Link
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00787-026-03233-x
