Giovanni Paolo Mariani (ULB ECARES)

论文题目

The Value of Local Public Goods: Evidence from Massachusetts’ Property Tax Limits

Abstract

This paper quanti fies households’ willingness-to-pay for local public goods using Massachusetts’ Proposition 2½, which caps annual property tax increases but permits voter-approved overrides to finance specific projects. Using a novel dataset of all proposed tax overrides from 2001–2023, we implement a dynamic regression discontinuity design that leverages close-margin elections. We find that passing an override causes a sustained 2.8% increase in housing prices over ten years. This estimate rises to 4% in a boundary discontinuity design comparing adjacent properties across municipal borders, controlling for unobserved neighborhood characteristics. We show this capitalization is driven by an influx of higher-income households attracted by improved public services. Consistent with this mechanism, overrides lead to a 3.5% increase in per-pupil spending and a cumulative 25% increase in teacher expenditures, while the enrollment share of low-income students simultaneously declines. A back of the envelope computation reveals that homeowners are willing to pay approximately $2 in present value for each $1 of override-funded spending.

链接

https://gmariani95.github.io/website/research/working_papers/Mariani_JMP.pdf

Junni Pan (Purdue)

论文题目

Migration Restrictions, College Choices, and Spatial Skill Sorting

Abstract

College education is widely regarded as a pathway to local labor markets, particularly where migration frictions limit labor mobility. This paper examines how such frictions shape college choices in China, where mobility is constrained by both formal migration restrictions and informal barriers. Using a national administrative dataset on four-year college admissions from 2005 to 2011, I show that relaxing migration restrictions through hukou reforms enabled colleges in reformed cities to attract higher-quality students. The largest gains occurred in colleges located in economically more developed cities relative to students' origins, consistent with the mechanism of improved local labor market prospects. Counterfactual analysis based on a college choice model indicates that easing migration restrictions in major cities strengthens the sorting of stronger students into treated colleges and raises aggregate welfare, though the gains are unevenly distributed. Welfare increases further when students can freely access the highest-paying labor markets. These results highlight the role of both formal and informal migration frictions in shaping spatial skill sorting and welfare.

链接

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WL08BWRgs32TSkUgeS-wJ1Atr4uHjhLw/view

Julian Oolman (Illinois)

论文题目

Endogenous Consumption Amenities of the Country Mouse and City Mouse

Abstract

What determines locally traded consumption bundles? Utilizing rich data on cell-phone based residence-to-establishment flows and establishment-match electronic transactions, I address this question with unsupervised machine learning and a novel quantitative model. The machine learning exercise identifies local consumption heterogeneity using over 100 ``in-person industries, finding a subset of urban neighborhoods have consumption bundles matching remote rural communities. I then augment a standard commute-based general equilibrium model with: discrete, possibly infinite varieties; firm shutdown from entry costs; inferior and luxury goods from nonhomothetic preferences; and consumption-related travel. Investigating local product variety determinants, I estimate two demand-side and two supply side policy counterfactuals using the machine learning identified neighborhoods to target place-based policy.  Across multiple intervention intensities, I find reducing income inequality (altering consumer preferences) improves consumption equality for most locations while least welfare improving, however, subsidizing entry costs is more welfare improving and has a ``Goldilocks zone for consumption access equality.

链接

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1uavj635WfYX4Z_dS9nM4CtoZ9SWLMl56/view

Fernando Ochoa (NYU)

论文题目

Targeting and Price Pass-Through in Housing Voucher Design

Abstract

Housing vouchers are a common policy for expanding access to homeownership, yet their effectiveness is called into question due to concerns over subsidies increasing housing prices and being poorly targeted. I study the equilibrium and distributional effects of homeownership vouchers through the case of Santiago's DS1 program, which subsidizes 7% of the city's transactions and is the largest such program in the OECD. I build an equilibrium model of a housing market with targeted and rationed homeownership vouchers. The model features endogenous voucher take-up and supply responses through existing unit sales and new construction. I estimate the model using novel data on voucher applications and usage, linked to the universe of real estate transactions and new development surveys. I evaluate the equilibrium impacts of the program relative to a scenario without the program, finding that it increases homeownership rates while raising prices. New development plays a significant role in dampening price inflation by increasing the supply of affordable units. Overall, I estimate that each dollar spent yields 61 cents in surplus. Although half of policy spending is transferred to beneficiaries, pecuniary externalities harm non-beneficiaries, reducing net consumer transfers to 25 cents per dollar spent. Counterfactual policies reveal a trade-off between targeting and price pass-through: policies that reduce price pass-through worsen targeting, as assistance goes to households more likely to become homeowners without the program.

链接

https://nanoochoa.github.io/files/papers/JMP_vouchers_ochoa.pdf

Matias Navarro (Cornell)

论文题目

On the Right Track? Designing Optimal Public Transit Contracts

Abstract

Private transit provision faces two opposing market failures: market power, which leads firms to set high prices and underprovide quality, and uninternalized network effects that arise from fragmented service and lack of coordination across routes. Governments address these distortions through contracts that combine quality targets with route bundling. This paper studies how these instruments should be designed to maximize welfare. I exploit quasi-experimental variation from Santiago, Chile’s 2022 contract reform which imposed stricter quality targets and rebundled routes among private operators. Using high-frequency GPS data for 373 bus routes and an event-study difference-in-differences design, I find that stricter quality targets improve service regularity by 16 percent and increase ridership by 7.5 percent. I develop and estimate a structural model that endogenizes traveler mode and route choices, private operators’ service attribute decisions, and traffic congestion to evaluate alternative contract designs. The results show that welfare losses from monopoly pricing exceed coordination gains from single-operator networks, with optimal market structure involving four to five competing firms. The findings highlight that effective contract design must reconcile the efficiency gains from competition with the coordination benefits of network integration.

链接

https://mnavarrosudy.github.io/files/research/navarro_jmp.pdf

Alberto Nasi (Bocconi)

论文题目

Mortgage Rates and the Price-to-Rent Ratio Across Space

Abstract

This paper develops a parsimonious housing market model that conceptualizes residential real estate as both a non-tradable consumption good and an investment asset. The framework embeds households’ joint location–tenure choices, which shape local price-to-rent ratios. I test its predictions using a granular dataset of Italian housing prices and rents and a shift-share instrumental variable design exploiting heterogeneity in mortgage uptake across age groups. The results show that mortgage rate shocks induce spatially asymmetric responses in prices, rents, price-to-rent ratios, population, and tenure choices, consistent with the implications of the model. A structural estimation reproduces these heterogeneous effects and indicates that a positive mortgage rate shock alleviates spatial welfare inequality and narrows the divide between renters and homeowners.

链接

https://albnasi.github.io/assets/files/AlbertoNasi_JMP.pdf

Jordan Mosqueda (UCSD)

论文题目

Equilibrium Commuting Costs: The Role of Private and Public Transit

Abstract

Developing cities rely on a mix of private minibuses and public transit, with many commutes being multimodal. This paper investigates how private providers’ decisions shape commuting costs considering complementarities with the public network, and the welfare and spatial consequences of policies that directly shift prices such as fare regulation and subsidies. I develop a quantitative spatial model in which commuters choose multimodal routes and private providers shape commuting costs through entry, pricing, and frequencies, affecting congestion and network-wide costs. The model is disciplined with newly-collected geographic and service data covering the near-universe of transit lines in the Mexico City metropolitan area. To identify key substitution and congestion elasticities, I exploit road-link-level speed changes induced by an exogenous subway-line collapse. Counterfactual analyses suggest that price-based policies can generate welfare gains comparable to infrastructure expansions. The mechanisms underscore that the endogenous response of the private sector and network-wide cost interactions are central to understand the effects of transit interventions.

链接

https://jordanmosqueda.github.io/JMP_Mosqueda.pdf

Iris Margetis (Michigan State)

论文题目

The Effects of a Mandatory Flood Risk Disclosure Law on Rent Prices and Residential Sorting in Texas

Abstract

Seven U.S. states have adopted mandatory flood-risk disclosure laws requiring landlords to notify prospective tenants when properties lie within designated flood zones. These policies aim to improve market efficiency and protect renters by making environmental risk more transparent. This paper provides the first empirical evaluation of such a law in the rental housing market, focusing on Texas’s statewide disclosure mandate, effective January 1, 2022. Using a novel dataset linking over 350,000 geocoded rental listings (2019–2024) to high-resolution flood maps and ZIP-level demographics, I estimate difference-in-differences models comparing rent changes for flood-prone and non-flood-prone units before and after the law. Event-study results show parallel pre-trends and no post-policy rent divergence, while complementary analyses using American Community Survey data reveal no systematic demographic or mobility responses. These findings suggest that disclosure alone, absent salience, timing, or enforcement, was insufficient to reprice or redistribute flood risk in rental markets, underscoring the limits of transparency as an adaptation.

链接

https://irismargetis.com/pdf/JMP_Margetis_Iris.pdf

Anna Lukianova (Wisconsin)

论文题目

Income Taxation, Entrepreneurship, and Inequality in the U.S.

Abstract

How does income taxation affect income inequality through entrepreneurship in the United States? I develop a spatial general equilibrium model in which individuals sequentially choose where to live and whether to become workers or entrepreneurs. Each state is characterized by exogenous amenities, business and labor tax rates, and a productivity distribution that reflects the local productivity and economic opportunities for agents. Consistent with the data, the model predicts negative relationships between business tax rates and entrepreneurship rates, as well as between entrepreneurship rates and income inequality. I find that differences in business taxation account for 4.4% and 2.8% of the observed cross-state variation in entrepreneurship and the pretax Gini coefficient, respectively, with the remainder driven by heterogeneity in state productivity distributions.  At the same time, differences in both business and labor income tax rates mitigate productivity differences across states and reduce the variation in entrepreneurship by 2.4%. The calibrated model highlights that ignoring endogenous occupational choice understates the effects of business tax harmonization on entrepreneurial activity, aggregate productivity, wages, output, and income inequality. 

链接

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1M4Q6hrgp3zQ7KrAPHmWGoEt0BmNX-Uwl/view

Feng Lin (Chicago)

论文题目

Sorting, Displacement, and the Limited Welfare Benefits of Non-Local Firms

Abstract

How much do consumers in a city benefit from the presence of local-service firms originating in other cities? While establishments of non-local firms are typically larger and likely more productive than their local counterparts, their net welfare benefits can be more limited due to two reasons. First, consumption in these industries is highly localized, and non-local firms may appear larger partly because they sort into high-demand locations. Second, non-local firms displace local firms to locations with lower demand, reducing consumer access to the displaced firms. Motivated by these patterns, I develop a quantitative spatial model that features the sorting of firms to heterogeneous locations within a city, where they compete for a limited supply of commercial floor space. Calibrating the model to a selected set of U.S. commuting zones, I find that the presence of non-local firms increases local consumer welfare by less than 1% on average. This estimate is significantly smaller than the gains predicted by an alternative model that abstracts from the sorting and displacement of firms across locations. A decomposition of the welfare effects reveals that this modest impact is driven by a strong displacement channel.

链接

https://drive.google.com/file/d/14nmfuG2gjdMejZb041LgW9AT1Ze1Z_z-/view

Furkan Kilic (Chicago)

论文题目

Spatial Allocation of Inventors, Knowledge Diffusion and Growth

Abstract

Where does innovation truly thrive? Inventive activity in the US is strikingly concentrated in a handful of hubs. This raises compelling questions: Does further agglomeration drive innovation, or could a more dispersed approach better leverage regional spillovers? To investigate, I exploit variation in patent citation lags across US states and develop a novel endogenous growth model with mobile inventors and workers. The model integrates an exogenous knowledge network that facilitates the dynamic exchange of ideas—laying the foundation for future inventions—between locations, revealing that inventors do not internalize how their location choice influences broader knowledge diffusion. These knowledge spillovers call for a targeted, place-based R&D subsidy to unlock latent innovation potential. Calibrating the model to data on inventor and worker allocations—and estimating the knowledge diffusion network from patent citations—I find that optimal policy would further concentrate inventors in established hubs, enhancing welfare by 1.8% in consumption-equivalent terms and boosting the economy’s long-run growth rate by 0.14 percentage points.

链接

https://www.furkan-kilic.com/papers/kilic_jmp.pdf

Aja Kennedy (Tufts)

论文题目

Local Spillover Effects of Density Bonus Policy on Housing Production: Evidence in Massachusetts

Abstract

Many metropolitan areas in the United States suffer from a housing crisis characterized by housing prices that are unaffordable to low or moderate income residents. One way policymakers address this problem is to increase supply by incentivizing housing production, especially production of incomerestricted housing. A “density bonus” policy is one such intervention. It incentivizes production of dense, mixed-income housing developments by relaxing restrictive local zoning regulations and providing a streamlined permitting process for developers who include income-restricted units in their proposed residential developments. In the case of Massachusetts Chapter 40B, the country’s oldest density-bonus policy, relaxing zoning regulations can be achieved through a state-level override of local restrictions on density. Using Massachusetts Chapter 40B as a case study, this paper analyzes local crowd out effects of mixed-income housing developments in high-income neighborhoods. To do this, I estimate spillover effects of these developments on local housing construction. By using a staggered differencesin-differences technique to compare places with approved 40B developments to places that do not yet have 40B developments approved, I find that, within 0.8 miles surrounding a Chapter 40B development, approval of a 40B development on average diminishes local single-family construction by about 5 percent over the course of 10 years following development approval. Furthermore, when we compare the average number of units in a development with the average negative spillover effect, I estimate that incentivizing one additional 40B unit adds about 0.95 of a unit to the local housing stock, meaning many 40B units are generally not locally inframarginal.

链接

https://ajakennedy.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/kennedy-aja.job-market-paper-3.pdf

Zane Kashner (Stanford GSB) 

论文题目

Building with Externalities: Local Governments and Wind Farms

Abstract

Does local government regulation of new infrastructure with local externalities result in efficiency? Although local governments’ choices can internalize local costs, political or contracting frictions may cause actual outcomes to deviate from the idealized benchmark of Coase (1960). I study this problem in the context of wind farms. I develop a model of interaction between wind developers and local governments where wind farms are built only if they are both profitable and allowed by local governments, who weigh local costs against payments from developers. I estimate that the average household’s cost of living three miles from a wind farm is around 7.5% of its home’s value. I find that built wind farms trade off more than $7 of engineering profit for each $1 of cost to households. This arises in part because local governments must be paid roughly $3 for every $1 of externality to approve projects. Moreover, I find that state regulations limiting payments to local governments further depress wind-farm construction. I compare the performance of alternative developer-government contracting rules in reaching the United States’ net-zero carbon goals. I find that requiring wind developers to pay local governments 20% of nearby homes’ value raises social welfare by about $220 billion relative to when developers cannot pay local governments.

链接

https://www.zanekashner.com/files/wind-paper.pdf

Nathan Jones (UPF)

论文题目

Pricing Out the Poor: Income Segregation and Housing Supply Regulation

Abstract

American cities have been growing more segregated by income. A leading explanation is that the growth in income inequality has increased high-income households' willingness to pay to cluster together. Others have blamed it on ever more restrictive housing supply regulation. I show that these explanations are complementary. To study the interaction of these two forces, I develop a quantitative urban model with a novel margin of endogenous housing supply regulation. Municipalities trade off the profits from new construction with the reduction in value of existing housing that it incurs, and I show that this generates a feedback loop between neighbourhood income and regulation. Municipalities endogenously have stronger incentives to tighten regulation for richer neighbourhoods, pricing out poor households and exacerbating spatial inequality. Quantifying my model with publicly available data, I find that the rise in the college wage premium since 1980 explains 40-86% of the increase in income segregation in New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago, and that 6-29% of this effect comes from the endogenous tightening of regulation.

链接

https://nathan-jones.net/text/nathan_jones_jmp.pdf

Richard Jin (Berkeley)

Jiahao Jiang (Virginia)

论文题目

Rise of Homeownership in China: Insights from a Life Cycle Analysis

Abstract

Between 2010 and 2015, China’s urban homeownership rate increased by 8.5 percentage points. This paper examines the drivers of this surge using a general equilibrium overlapping-generations (OLG) model with life-cycle housing tenure choice. The model incorporates heterogeneous agents and fixed-payment mortgages to quantify the effects of four concurrent policy and market developments: reductions in down-payment requirements, declines in mortgage rates, the emergence of online real estate platforms, and the expansion of subsidized affordable housing programs. Calibrated to Chinese data, the model shows that in the short run, the combined effect of four factors can increase homeownership rate by about 7.5%. In addition, reductions in mortgage rates and targeted subsidies account for the majority of the increase. A cut in mortgage rates raises ownership by 4.5%, while the expansion of affordable housing programs increases it by 4.7%. Welfare analysis further indicates that the combined reforms enhance household well-being, with the largest welfare gains stemming from lower mortgage rates.

链接

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3499348

Yuyang Jiang (Princeton)

论文题目

Strategic Transportation Investment and Coordinative Policies: Evidence from the U.S. Highway Network

Abstract

Transportation networks are often built by multiple jurisdictions whose invest-ment decisions may not fully account for cross-border benefits. This paper builds aframework to evaluate the welfare implications of limited regional cooperation andcentral subsidies in transportation investments, accounting for goods trade, commut-ing, and governments’ budget constraints. In this framework, regional governmentschoose investments in their segments of the network to serve constituents’ interests,taking as given the investment choices of other regions and cost-sharing subsidiesfrom a central government. Through the lens of the model, decentralized investmentin the U.S. highway network leads to 15% underinvestment relative to the nationaloptimum and generates a welfare loss equivalent to 30% of current highway spend-ing. While raising the federal subsidy rate increases total spending, it fails to achievea cost-effective allocation of investment across the network.

链接

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/2dgfqaqqddc0qiqx7r7kp/Draft_Strategic_Transportation_Investment.pdf?rlkey=t9ka2lfjq9xd8ws9dsg76v3lr&e=1&st=0vvh4rmt&dl=0

Yikuan Ji (UMD)

论文题目

Travel Mode Choice and Distributional Impacts of Congestion Charge Policy in New York City

Abstract

This paper evaluates the distributional and welfare impacts of New York City’s recently implemented congestion pricing program, the first in the United States. Using the 2022 Citywide Mobility Survey, I estimate a discrete choice model of travel mode with heterogeneous responses to cost and time, embedded in a congestion feedback framework. The analysis distinguishes between two channels: a price-side effect, capturing the direct burden of the toll on travelers, and a revenue-side effect, reflecting how toll revenues are recycled. The results show that the current toll ($9 peak / $2.25 off-peak) reduces private vehicle trips involving the Manhattan Core by about 19,000 per weekday, with most shifts to subways and walking. Accounting for congestion feedback raises driving speeds and substantially increases welfare relative to a fixed-traffic analysis. The toll alone lowers consumer surplus by $0.32 per person-day, with larger relative burdens on lower-income travelers, while a uniform rebate raises net welfare by $2.24 and makes the policy mildly progressive. Distributional analysis shows that equity outcomes hinge on these two effects: the price-side burden follows income patterns, while the revenue-side outcome depends on policy design. Transit fare subsidies generate smaller average gains while reinforcing mode shifts. The findings highlight that the equity and efficiency of congestion pricing depend jointly on traveler behavior and revenue design, with lessons for other U.S. cities planning similar policies.

链接

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/dvi4hgil5k1cp16atvkx4/JMP_draft_YikuanJi.pdf?rlkey=qukk85kajjmgpuvyu1c2uoajn&e=1&st=45cpwws2&dl=0

Razi Iqbal (Michigan)

论文题目

Sectoral and spatial reallocation via multi-establishment firms

Abstract

I study how large multi-establishment firms shape worker mobility and welfare byfacilitating reallocation across space and sectors. Using matched employer-employeedata from Brazil covering the universe of formal workers, I show that one-fourth ofmigration across local labor markets, and nearly 30 percent of worker transitions acrossindustries, take placewithinfirms. In addition, I show that multi-establishment firmsmitigate the impact of negative shocks on workers, and help them exploit positiveshocks, through internal reallocation. Guided by these facts, I develop a dynamiceconomic geography model with imperfectly competitive labor markets, in which multi-establishment firms offer lower mobility frictions but exercise labor market power. Themodel highlights a tradeoff: workers value the “amenity” of lower mobility frictions, butfirms internalize that and offer lower wages while extracting larger wage markdowns.In the steady state calibrated to Brazilian data, multi-establishment firms offer 1.7%lower wages, with a commensurate increase in wage markdowns. However, the lowerwages are largely offset by the higher option value of working in a multi-establishmentfirm. Finally, I show that multi-establishment firms mitigate the impact of negativelocal productivity shocks through internal reallocation: without them, the impact oflocal shocks on aggregate output would be 2-6% worse, depending on the size and thespatial scope of the shocks.

链接

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/7hcmky888tjavhgop1lbe/Razi_JMP_latest.pdf?rlkey=7e5dwfelhgsycqxbtce7i4s4b&e=1&st=ef9kyo89&dl=0

Ji Hwan Kim (UPenn)

论文题目

Adapting to Storms in the U.S.: A Spatial Dynamic Analysis

Abstract

This study analyzes the economic consequences of climate change, with an emphasis on the impact of storms on capital destruction in the U.S. It examines how private adaptation, such as migration and capital investment, interacts with place-based public adaptation policies, while taking the trajectory of increasing storm intensity under climate change as given. Methodologically, I extend the dynamic spatial general equilibrium model of Kleinman et al. (2023), applying dynamic hat algebra to a framework covering 3,075 counties. Under the status quo policy, climate change reduces welfare by 3.64% relative to no climate change, with heterogeneity in impacts across counties. Maximizing the share of capital meeting the elevation requirements and increasing the fraction of damaged capital covered by subsidies by 40 percentage points above the status quo in storm-affected counties yields the largest welfare gain of 57.04%. These subsidies are financed solely by agents who reside in counties classified as vulnerable regions.

链接

https://jihwankim1994.weebly.com/uploads/1/5/1/1/151162346/jmp.pdf

Zong Huang (Stanford)

论文题目

The Redistributive and Efficiency Effects of Property Taxes

Abstract

Property taxes raise revenue proportional to housing values, thereby distorting housing consumption and creating unequal tax burdens for households receiving the same public services. This paper develops a spatial equilibrium model to quantify the redistributive and efficiency effects of property taxation. I use household microdata to estimate housing demand: the price elasticity of housing expenditures is 0.54, rejecting a common assumption of unit elastic demand. Counterfactual simulations show that switching from property taxes to a non-distortionary tax increases housing supply by 2.4%, but decreases equity and increases income segregation. Under a property tax system, low-income households receive implicit transfers of approximately $1,500 annually, whereas high-income households pay $4,000. Increasing redistribution with a progressive tax system is significantly constrained by high-income household mobility.

链接

https://z-y-huang.github.io/assets/pdf/PropertyTax.pdf

Bisma Haseeb Khan (Toronto)

论文题目

Public Transit, Residential Sorting and Labor Supply: Evidence and Theory from Lahore’s Bus Rapid Transit System

Abstract

Public transit can transform how people live and work, yet its distributional effects remain unclear, particularly in developing cities where most households rely on low-quality transit. This paper studies the establishment of the Lahore Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system to examine how mass transit reshapes residential sorting and household labor supply. Using a novel geo-spatial dataset,and exploiting the staggered roll-out of the planned BRT lines, I show that younger, nuclear, non-college-educated households relocate closer to BRT corridors, with greater labor force participation of men in these households. Women’s labor market participation, however, remains largely unchanged—consistent with tied-mover dynamics. To interpret these patterns, I build a spatial model that incorporates gender specific constraints, age-based mobility, and endogenous amenities and provides a framework for evaluating the distributional welfare consequences of transit infrastructure in developing-country contexts.

链接

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/xjp7tm06bs6pnyy1qbp9v/Thesis_chapter_1.pdf?rlkey=bs94470kfw7bvuar2fdsghjal&e=1&st=am44s4zh&dl=0