Raymond Han (MIT)

论文题目

Equilibrium Effects of Neighborhood Schools

Abstract

Many public school districts allow families to enroll in schools outside their neighborhood. At the cost of higher transportation spending, choice programs aim to decouple educational opportunity from residential geography. This paper evaluates the impact of a return to neighborhood-based assignment following Seattle’s re-introduction of neighborhood schools in 2010. We quantify the aggregate and distributional consequences of neighborhood assignment using an equilibrium model of joint residential and enrollment choices. Residential relocation responses limit the welfare costs of neighborhood assignment, reducing aggregate losses by roughly half. Lower housing costs fully offset welfare losses from restricted choice for low-income renters. Neighborhood assignment does not increase racial segregation or reduce the quality of schools attended by low-income families.

链接

https://raymondwhan.github.io/JMP_Han.pdf

Lucy Hackett (Berkeley ARE)

论文题目

Land subsidence: Environmental risk in housing markets in Mexico City

Abstract

We study the costs of and the housing market response to subsidence- the sinking of land areas due to groundwater over-extraction- in Mexico City. We propose an equilibrium model of the housing market that features housing re-development in the face of an evolving environmental hazard that has both realized and expected future impacts to home quality. Our model highlights that while realizations of subsidence attract development by lowering the opportunity cost of re-building units, information frictions affecting the capitalization of future risk lead to an over-supply of housing in risky areas. Guided by model-derived estimating equations, we exploit quasi-random variation in sinking intensity to estimate the impact of both realized and future subsidence on home values and redevelopment. We find that realized subsidence imposes substantial costs, lowering prices by 1.5% on average. However, prices are unresponsive to measures of expected future sinking, and novel survey evidence suggests that information frictions affect the ability of homebuyers to capitalize predictable future risk. Consistent with model predictions, units that have experienced more sinking are more likely to be redeveloped, as these have lower opportunity cost of being re-built. Evaluating welfare using our parameter estimates implies that subsidence costs Mexico City a total of $33 billion USD, about $18 billion of which are due to information frictions that inefficiently increase the housing stock in the riskiest neighborhoods.

链接

https://lghackett.github.io/assets/pdfs/subsidence.pdf

David H. Buller (Illinois)

论文题目

Estimating Spatial Heterogeneity in the Labor Market Effects of Place-Based Business Incentive Deals

Abstract

This paper uses comprehensive and hand-collected microdata on business tax incentive deals – one of the most common forms of place-based economic policy in the United States – to provide the first evidence of how the labor market effects of these deals differ within county by proximity to the incentivized firms’ facilities. I use a novel nested matching algorithm that combines advantages of propensity score matching and covariate matching to identify untreated census tracts that are systematically similar to the tracts surrounding large incentive deals. I find that seven years after the incentive deals, the share of the population with college degrees and the median incomes in tracts closest to the deals increase by 4.54% and 2.92%, respectively. Effects on share college-educated and income, however, are negative for the tracts that are further from the deals. These divergent effects on share college-educated and income are primarily driven by incentive deals for non-manufacturing facilities and expansions of existing facilities. Additionally, effects on population are very negative, with the tracts nearest to the deals experiencing population declines of 14.46% seven years after the deals. Population effects are especially negative for manufacturing deals and deals that are targeting firms to build brand new facilities. Together, these results indicate that incentive deals for large facilities induce people to move away, particularly when the subsidized facility is new or a manufacturing plant. Deals subsidizing existing, non-manufacturing facilities draw in college-educated workers at the expense of lower-educated incumbent residents who leave the area, with areas further from the deals facing decreased incomes as a result.

链接

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dsdD6I7wioO0D6UAKxQ6Uh25oYQp3PkK/view

Gabrielle Grafton (Brown)

论文题目

The Great Migration and Those Left Behind

Abstract

Despite the extensive literature on the Great Migration, very little is known about the economic and social consequences for Southern non-migrants. We study the impact out-migration imposes on those who remain behind, focusing on Black Americans who remained in the South during the first decade of the Great Migration. We build a shift-share instrument for the net Black out-migration rate using shocks to manufacturing employment in Northern cities. We find that both Black and White non-migrants experienced increases in wages due to out-migration. Black out-migration also led to farm closures and less racial hostility in Southern communities. We identify labor supply shocks, occupation switching, and changes in the production process as the mechanisms driving our results. At least in the short term, out-migration can be beneficial for non-migrants. 

链接

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZvDyQTtu1s_5MDOv6AOJDrBCcSOj-vpU/view

Daniel Gold (Wisconsin)

论文题目

Regulatory Hurdles and Costly Delay in Housing Development

Abstract

This paper quantifies the supply effects of discretionary permit review, a common but understudied regulatory friction that delays and adds uncertainty to housing development. Using the universe of permit applications in Seattle, Washington, during a period when a unit count threshold for undergoing discretionary permit review was in place, I show that undergoing discretionary review increased permit review time by 4 to 5 months, and that developers reduced unit counts and increased average unit size in order to avoid discretionary review. I then propose a novel extension of prevailing housing production models to multifamily developments that accounts for both the intensive and extensive margins of development. Using data that is freely and publicly available in most jurisdictions, I estimate the model and find that removing discretionary permit review would have increased the number of new units constructed by 5.5% while reducing the average size of new developments by nearly 2%. The estimated change comes largely from the intensive margin, as, in expectation, only two additional parcels would be redeveloped absent discretionary review.

链接

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5be71374365f022440b093c4/t/693c781e6fd6203d6110f51d/1765570590352/gold_jmp.pdf

Sebastian Espinoza Rojas (UCL)

论文题目

Market Power and Local Labor Markets

Abstract

Labor markets in large metropolitan areas are segmented. The literature has referred to these micro-markets as ``Local Labor Markets and has typically used location and industry, or occupation, to delineate them. This is problematic for two reasons: 1) delineations rely on arbitrary administrative boundaries for regions, industries, and occupations, and 2) this implicitly assumes that the structure of the larger market does not change. In this paper, we use the metro expansion in Santiago de Chile to show that transport infrastructure can change what constitutes a local labor market and thus have knock-on effects on labor market power and aggregate outcomes. We build a simple theoretical framework that delivers testable predictions to guide our analysis. We find empirical evidence that after a relevant reduction of commuting costs, workers from previously small markets have higher probabilities of changing local labor market and enjoy higher wages. Lastly, we find that in labor markets affected by the reduction of commuting costs, mean markdowns fall around 10 percentage points. 

链接

https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/pmzfbbjyv3bp4snqtlf5q/Market-power-commuting-costs-and-local-labor-markets.pdf?rlkey=2gclrxfgdcxcp636i1vskfo5e&e=2&st=06nyp6mw&dl=0

Plinio Dias Bicalho Jr (Boston U)

论文题目

Quantifying the Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Competition: the Brazilian “Fiscal War”

Abstract

This paper studies the role of tax competition among state governments in reducing aggregate public goods provision. To this end, I develop a spatial general equilibrium model with multiple sectors, endogenous state taxes, and firm location choices. Endogenous tax setting allows me to characterize tax competition as a Nash equilibrium among state governments. I estimate the model using novel state-level data on sector-specific tax exemptions in Brazil, and I use bilateral trade flows data and a simulated method of moments procedure to calibrate key model elasticities. My estimates and the theoretical framework jointly indicate that Brazilian tax competition is largely explained by state competition over manufacturing activity, whereas competition over services plays a limited role. Finally, relative to a harmonized tax regime, I find that tax competition reduces public goods provision by 11 percent, providing no aggregate gains in consumption. However, certain states lose tax revenues and consumption if tax competition is fully eliminated.

链接

https://pliniobicalho.com/gallery/JMP_Plinio_Bicalho.pdf

Agustín Deambrosi (Penn State)

论文题目

When, where, and how quickly? A model of Venezuelan stepwise migration with network effects, credit constraints, and official assistance

Abstract

This paper studies how liquidity constraints and migrant networks shape the location choices of Venezuelan forced migrants across South America and how assistance policies affect these outcomes. I develop and estimate a dynamic structural model in which migrants make forward-looking location decisions, accumulate assets often in order to finance onward migration, and build destination-specific integration capital that is lost when they relocate. Networks reduce effective migration costs through help offers that arise endogenously from past settlement patterns. I discipline the model using migrant specific microdata and administrative stocks from Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Chile. I compare coordinated transport assistance, which enables early moves to high productivity urban centers, to subsistence support provided in congested regions. Coordinated transport assistance is about five times more cost effective in raising migrant welfare because early relocation triggers compounding network effects across cohorts. Delaying the same program sharply reduces its effectiveness because by then migrants are already integrated into lower productivity locations and network ties are already weakened. These findings speak directly to ongoing policy debates: treating Venezuelans as economic migrants rather than refugees has excluded them from coordinated mobility support, resulting in substantial welfare losses and widespread preventable hardship along their migration paths.

链接

https://ucb0252589f221698db573874410.dl.dropboxusercontent.com/cd/0/inline2/C3gzni2mzfs-Epjvlhm0Vw18ya2WPLIMWMRoxjP5DLKLIwhykAMJPY5GBB9ErtlW-rN1hfHpqM9Tic-SMybHZEekXwDoJxlK41kuBOWtSLSRG5MD4X3JwmDdXoQ4CPKBh4_akwcGJJ0_0n8poRh9VgSKLLmo_pKMb0H35tYZMRuVvpQHYC09TttdaO5oW1eHomoWbYQlT94RgH5DjLT0nKVftyOrfm2YLga3Mhumcq9PfBNQxtF5pt6bMR2tujVAlTT24KTSlFPdb9XXquwIQj0_fNX5e6QvOJivvtcdBBdTOg8Q09tzsp9q5m3MhKzled8-VsdQ6976jhCr9GBRuBYysIiCUJOnYqe6vFve2uRBqjZtxUCXQA9fks-_v38Id8A/file

Lindsey Currier (Harvard)

论文题目

Competition in U.S. Infrastructure

Abstract

Can limited competition in procurement auctions explain the high, and rising, price of road infrastructure in the U.S.? I assemble a new dataset covering the near-universe of state highway auctions between 2002 and 2024. I first document thin competition: one- or two-bidder auctions account for a third of awards, and this share has risen over the past decade. Using spatial variation in inter-state bidder locations, I then estimate the average causal effect of competition on prices; an additional bidder reduces prices by ten percent. To decompose bids in the data into markups and production costs, I develop a semi-parametric structural auction model that incorporates bidders’ uncertainty over the number of competitors they face. I show that price increases over the past decade are primarily attributable to increasing markups, not increasing production costs. Limited competition, in turn, is consistent with patterns generated by fixed costs of entry, but not broad construction-sector fixed costs. Embedding the markup estimates in an entry model, I estimate large auction and market entry costs, consistent with an important role for procurement complexity and regulatory barriers.

链接

https://lcurrier.github.io/papers/Currier_JMP.pdf

Benjamin Couillard (Toronto)

论文题目

Build, Baby, Build: How Housing Shapes Fertility

Abstract

Many developed countries face low and falling birthrates, potentially affected by rising costs of housing. Existing evidence on the fertility-housing cost relationship typically uses geographic variation (raising selection issues), neglects unit size, and says little about policy. To progress on these fronts, I first specify a dynamic model of the joint housing-fertility choice allowing choices over location and house size, estimated using US Census Bureau data. I extend `micro-moment' techniques (Petrin, 2002; BLP, 2004) both to circumvent data constraints and to incorporate heterogeneous residuals, which can prevent misspecification. Housing choice estimates confirm a Becker quantity-quality model’s predictions: large families are more cost-sensitive, and so rising housing costs disincentivize fertility. To study the causal effect of rising housing costs on fertility, I vary them directly within the model, finding that rising costs since 1990 are responsible for 11% fewer children, 51% of the total fertility rate decline between the 2000s and 2010s, and 7 percentage points fewer young families in the 2010s. Policy counterfactuals indicate that a supply shift for large units generates 2.3 times more births than an equal-cost shift for small units. This analysis concludes that the supply of housing suitable for families can meaningfully contribute to demographic sustainability. 

链接

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BK6jNy9jqCXS0c7PYakrkSqoFxJY2XCS/view

Beau Bressler (UC Davis)

论文题目

Building Segregation: The Long-Run Neighborhood Effects of American Public Housing

Abstract

This paper studies the long-term neighborhood effects of the American public housing program, one of the largest and most controversial American urban policies of the 20th century. I construct a new national dataset tracking the locations, completion dates, and characteristics of over 1 million public housing units built between 1935 and 1973, which I link to neighborhood-level data from 1930 to 2010. I document that public housing projects were systematically targeted towards initially poorer, more populated neighborhoods with higher Black population shares, reflecting the program's slum clearance goals and racialized site selection politics. Using a stacked matched difference-in-differences approach, I estimate causal effects of public housing construction on neighborhood change by comparing treated neighborhoods to matched control areas within the same county based on pre-treatment characteristics that predict placement. I find that public housing construction caused large, persistent increases in Black population shares and substantial declines in median incomes and rents within project neighborhoods. Geographic spillovers to nearby neighborhoods were modest, characterized by small increases in Black population shares driven primarily by white population decline, alongside small declines in median incomes. I find evidence consistent with neighborhood tipping dynamics: neighborhoods with initial Black shares in a plausible tipping range experienced substantial white population outflows. Finally, linking to intergenerational mobility data, I show that children from low-income families who grew up in public housing neighborhoods experienced significantly lower rates of upward mobility than those in comparable control areas. These findings demonstrate that mid-century public housing, despite intentions of slum clearance and revitalization, reinforced existing patterns of racial and economic segregation with lasting consequences for economic opportunity.

链接

https://beaubressler.github.io/papers/public_housing_neighborhoods/jmp.pdf

Lukas Boehnert (Oxford)

论文题目

The Regional Specialization Trade-off

Abstract

In 1950, highly specialized U.S. regions had higher per capita incomes than those with greater industrial diversity. Since then, however, the more specialized regions have grown persistently slower. I rationalize this novel finding in a dynamic multi-industry model featuring two opposing forces. First, specialization raises productivity via agglomeration economies. Second, it increases exposure to sectoral shocks. Real factor adjustment costs and financial frictions make reallocation in response to shocks costly and long-lasting. Disciplined by U.S. Census data, the model explains half of the observed relationship between initial specialization and subsequent growth, with financial frictions accounting for more than half of this adverse effect. A constrained-efficient planner allocation reveals that less specialization can raise welfare by reducing a region’s exposure to industry-specific downturns.

链接

https://lukasboehnert.github.io/JMP_LBoehnert.pdf

Devin Bissky Dziadyk (Toronto)

论文题目

Little School on the Prairie: A Push for Structural Transformation

Abstract

Does education cause structural transformation? Using newly available full count census records from the early 20th century Canadian prairies, I examine the effect of the rollout of schools. I construct new census links and create the finest geolocations available in North American census records. Isolating schooling access at an individual child level, I estimate a difference-in-differences by cohort, relying on variation in school opening dates relative to a child’s age. I find that schooling access led children to exit agriculture as adults, move farther away from home, and earn higher incomes. They are significantly more likely to work in a higher skill services occupation, including as teachers, as adults. I interpret these results through the lens of a structural model of education-occupation-migration and find that the expansion of schools led to migration away from the most agriculturally marginal land, towards growing cities. This suggests that education access can act as a push factor for structural transformation out of agriculture in rural areas.

链接

https://bisskydziadyk.github.io/files/little-school-prairie.pdf

Aditya Bhandari (Chicago)

论文题目

Technology and the Geography of Industrial Policy

Abstract

Industrial policy around the world is increasingly targeting sectors heterogeneously across regions to account for sectoral agglomeration externalities. This paper provides a theoretical framework to study when such spatial targeting is optimal. I demonstrate that the optimal policy across regions depends on the underlying productivity structure: whether agglomeration affects Hicks-neutral (input-neutral) or Harrod-neutral (labor-augmenting) productivity, the two dominant formulations in spatial economics. When productivity is Hicks-neutral , optimal industrial subsidies increase with regional sector size. However, when productivity is Harrod-neutral, the optimal industrial subsidy is a constant ad-valorem wage subsidy across all regions. I apply this framework to manufacturing in England using data on 153 regions, where I estimate the productivity structure and the agglomeration elasticity. In the Hicks-neutral case, place-based policies raise welfare by 5.1% versus 2% for uniform subsidies. In the Harrod-neutral case, uniform subsidies raise welfare by 3.1%, while place-based ones reduce welfare by 0.7%. The estimation reveals predominantly Hicks-neutral technology, supporting place-based over uniform policies for manufacturing in England.

链接

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6403ade71319367973919ce0/t/6920ccecad18237bd8b3ae02/1763757292492/Technology_and_the_Geography_of_Industrial_Policy.pdf

Sebastián Bauer (Stanford GSB)

论文题目

Competition and Welfare in Airport Slot Allocation

Abstract

Airlines require landing and takeoff slots in order to serve congested airports. Currently, airlines are allocated slots for free and have to use them at least 80% of the time to keep them. A frequent proposal is to replace this system with auctions and eliminate the minimum usage requirement. To evaluate the welfare impact of the current system, I build and estimate a structural model of airline demand and route choice using EU data. My main counterfactual compares the status quo to an approximation of the outcome under an auction. I find that the minimum usage requirement leads airlines to increase the total number of flights they offer. This behavior exacerbates congestion, but it also increases competition and the number of available varieties to consumers, thereby increasing total welfare. The current system's pro-competitive effect means that total welfare is actually lower under the auction, although this result reverses if the social cost of carbon is high enough. My results highlight that reforms prioritizing allocative efficiency over the current mechanism's pro-competitive properties risk substantial harm to consumers.

链接

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kgcJGDQgHHACwFITWm4sPeALcUcE9goA/view

Elif Basaran (Penn State)

论文题目

Refugees, Amenities, and the Skill Premium

Abstract

This paper examines how intra-national native migration patterns and region-specific welfare respond to large inflows of immigrants. Leveraging the case of Turkiye, which experienced a substantial influx of Syrian refugees following the 2011 Syrian Civil War, I first provide reduced-form evidence on the effects of the influx on local labor markets and housing rents across skill groups. I then document an increase in native outmigration from refugee-concentrated areas, particularly among the high-skilled, alongside a significant deterioration in local amenities. These changes disproportionately burden the low-skilled natives, deepening pre-existing disparities between skill groups. Finally, to quantify the role of amenity changes in shaping native outmigration, I develop a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model in which amenities evolve endogenously and affect natives’ migration decisions through estimated, skill-specific amenity taste parameters. The model highlights amenity deterioration as a key mechanism behind native flight, and shows how differential mobility and amenity preferences reinforce rising skill premiums. It also provides a basis for counterfactual experiments that explore the effects of refugee reallocation policies and targeted subsidies. These demonstrate the potential for policy interventions to reduce regional distributional gaps and welfare losses.

链接

https://www.elif-basaran.com/_files/ugd/968c7f_68ccaad4d5b147178e92c0f46b835cef.pdf

Mark Bamba (Princeton)

论文题目

The Centralizing Effects of Tokyo’s Train System

Abstract

We evaluate the impact of Tokyo’s train system on where people live and work and the resulting welfare. We do so by calibrating a class of urban commuting models to Tokyo and using them to quantify how welfare and the spatial distribution of residence and employment respond to counterfactual changes in Tokyo’s rail network and in the surrounding transport environment and urban form. Three findings emerge. First, Tokyo’s rail system centralizes activity and generates substantial net benefits: relative to a no-rail benchmark, the existing network raises the center’s share of population and employment, and household welfare gains are between 9–16% in Greater Tokyo, corresponding to 1.8–5 times the present value of construction and maintenance costs. Second, network design matters. Core-focused subway lines account for most of the centralizing effect and a disproportionate share of welfare gains relative to construction expenditure. Third, the gains are sensitive to urban density and mobility options. Increasing automobile travel speeds toward typical U.S. levels reduces welfare gains from rail by about 40% and makes the city less centralized. If, in addition, Tokyo’s population density is reduced to New York–like levels, the rail system remains socially beneficial; at Los Angeles–like density, net returns become negative, highlighting high population density and the absence of alternative modes that encourage dispersion as important factors for successful rail investment.

链接

https://markbamba.github.io/files/JMPTokyoTransport.pdf

Abdelrahman Amer (Toronto)

论文题目

Monopsony in Space: Commuting & Labor Market Power

Abstract

This paper studies the role of commuting costs in shaping labor market power and the allocation of workers to firms. I build, identify, and estimate a two-sided labor market matching model that features strategic interactions in wage setting, commuting costs, and residential choice. I use the model to study the direct and distributional consequences of a commuting cost shock due to a subway expansion in Vancouver. Empirically, workers who gained improved access to the subway network experienced an increase in earnings by 1.5-2% relative to workers with no change in access. Using the estimated model, I show that the expansion improved access to more productive firms for workers in affected areas, but increased competition for high-productivity jobs for workers elsewhere. Neighborhoods with improved access experienced an 8% drop in labor market concentration. These results show that improvements in access to firms for some neighborhoods can generate adverse spillover effects for others due to higher competition amongst workers. To underscore the role of differential job access in shaping labor market power, I show that 10-15% of the spatial variation in wage markdowns can be explained by the non-uniform access to firms within a commuting zone.

链接

https://amerabdelrahman.github.io/assets/pdf/JMP.pdf

Elena Aguilar (Princeton)

论文题目

Credit Constraints, Learning, and Spatial Misallocation

Abstract

Human capital is a critical determinant of productivity in modern economies, and we have long understood credit market frictions to be a critical barrier for its accumulation. In this paper I study location decisions as a particular form of human capital investment, where individuals trade long-term benefits for high upfront costs, most notably in the form of housing. I show that when locations differ in the learning opportunities they offer and agents are heterogeneous in their learning ability, credit frictions not only weaken positive sorting of learning ability across space but, under empirically relevant conditions, they will induce negative sorting among individuals that are credit constrained. That is, marginally better learners will optimally choose to reside in locations offering worse learning opportunities. Relying on a novel source of administrative data from Spain, I show that this mechanism is not only empirically relevant, but also quantitatively important. I use the data to document the key mechanisms of the theory and quantify the losses associated with the effect of credit frictions on the spatial distribution of labor. Importantly, these losses arise from distortions in the composition of skill in each city: the dominant source of inefficiency is the spatial misallocation of individuals with high learning-ability. In the presence of negative sorting, standard place-based policies strictly aimed to expand the size of productive cities may have limited effects, making it important to design policies that can better target the composition of heterogeneous workers across space.

链接

https://www.elena-aguilar.net/files/papers/aguilar_jmp.pdf?v=3