刘丽 

LIU Li

复旦发展研究院副研究员

Associate Professor 

at Fudan Development Institute

2026年6月3日 10:00-11:30

10:00-11:30, June 3rd, 2026

复旦大学智库楼203

Room 203, Think Tank Building, 

Fudan University

英文

English

Since 2015, Indonesia has transferred more than 30 billion USD to over 75,000 villages under the Village Law, yet rural poverty remains stagnant at 10–11 percent. This study examines whether Village Fund effectiveness depends on local administrative capacity. Using panel fixed-effects regression across 33 provinces from 2015–2024, we find that fiscal transfers reduce poverty only in provinces with strong administrative capability. Low-capacity regions, particularly in Eastern Indonesia, show negligible effects and higher risks of elite capture. Drawing lessons from China’s Targeted Poverty Alleviation model, the study argues that Indonesia needs mobilized accountability and stronger village governance, not merely larger fiscal transfers, to achieve rural development.