On April 9, 2025, Trump announced a 90-day moratorium on new tariffs on more than 70 countries excluding China, and opened intensive bilateral negotiations in an attempt to trade the tariff moratorium for core benefits such as procurement commitments, lower taxes, and regulatory concessions. The article points out that the 90-day window marks the Trump administration's shift from overall pressure to selective talk instead of fight, with its goal to reach a large number of bilateral agreements in the short run to reshape the US-centric trade network.

The article sorted out the rhythm of the three-round negotiation: the first round with focus on reaching preliminary results as soon as possible with Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and other nations with active willingness; the second round of in-depth consultations with the United Kingdom, Australia, Mexico, Canada and other major partners; the third round with focus on the breakthrough of the EU and unresolved issues, and  to look for the grand finale agreement opportunity with the help of G7 and other multilateral occasions.

The United States has put forward differentiated pressures around the four major demands of increasing procurement, lowering tariffs, relaxing regulations and restricting re-exports. Most countries choose to purchase U.S. products to show the friendly gesture, while in terms of tariff reductions, regulation and origin audits, they have distinct response strategies due to domestic structural, political and public opinion constraints. The EU, India, Japan and others have faced internal resistance and have tended to make symbolic commitments in exchange for leniency.

The article argues that during the negotiation process, problems of the US limited manpower, implicit strategy, the differentiated interests of countries, difficulty of coordinationmay also cause delay or repeated agreements. The final result may show three patterns: firstly, more agreements, low barriers, order reorganization; secondly, negotiation tug-of-war and tariff delay; thirdly, negotiation rupture and escalation of conflicts. The 90-day window of the game will cast a profound impact on the global trade pattern and the future of the multilateral system.

Translated by Yifan JIA

Full text in Chinese available at:

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/i_p7JovI87PwTfYo92p-SQ