Military AI and the New Risks of US–China Competition

Author:Tianjiao Jiang,Shawn Rostker Release date:2026-09-27 22:43:37Source:Survival

Author:

Tianjiao Jiang

Tianjiao Jiang is an associate professor at the Development Institute of Fudan University, deputy director of the Center for BRICS Studies and research fellow of the Center for Global AI Innovative Governance at Fudan.

Shawn Rostker

Shawn Rostker is a research analyst at the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.


Abstract:Military applications of artificial intelligence (AI) are becoming a central but poorly understood source of mistrust in US–China strategic competition. AI does not simply intensify rivalry by producing new capabilities; it also obscures intent, compresses decision-making and magnifies worst-case assumptions. Because many AI systems are dual-use, software based, commercially developed and technically opaque, each side struggles to distinguish defensive modernisation from preparations for coercion or pre-emption. The United States views military AI as essential to decision advantage and operational resilience, while fearing China’s civil–military fusion and ‘intelligentised’ warfare. China, in turn, sees US AI-enabled intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, uncrewed systems and export controls as threats to its security and technological development. These competing narratives reinforce instability. Modest risk-reduction measures, including regular military-to-military dialogue, shared benchmarking, cooperation on interpretability and guard rails for AI in nuclear-related decision systems, would diminish it.


Key words:Al safety; China; arms control; artificial intelligence (Al); civil-military fusion; defensive optimisation; digital transformation; intelligentised warfare; military-industrial complex; Joint All-Domain Command and Control (ADC2); Project Maven; People's Liberation Army (PLA); risk-reduction measures; security guarantees; United States


Link:https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2026.2725358


image.png