On November 14, 2025, the Financial Research Center of the Fudan Development Institute (FDFRC) released the results of the 146th China Economic Panel (CEP) survey. The investigation reveals that China's economic sentiment index remained unchanged at 0.00, while the sentiment index for the United States was adjusted upward from 9.09 to 13.33, and the Eurozone's index rose from -13.64 to -6.67.

Professor Lijian SUN, Director of the FDFRC, analyzed these shifts, noting that while expectations for China's economic growth saw a slight downward adjustment, the sentiment index remained stable primarily due to ongoing structural adjustments; this process of structural renewal has led to a period of short-term weakness. In contrast, the upward revision of the U.S. economic sentiment index is largely attributed to the alleviation of intensifying trade frictions, which has fostered positive market expectations for the American economy. Similarly, the improvement in the Eurozone's sentiment stems from two key factors: the recent conclusion of political vacillation in Europe has reduced economic uncertainty, and trade frictions between the U.S. and Europe have likewise eased.

Regarding inflation, the survey forecasts a rate of -0.13% for China over the next three months and 0.23% over the coming year, marking an upward adjustment in both short-term and long-term expectations compared to September's data. Professor Sun pointed out that the rise in CPI expectations reflects recent national policies aimed at countering involution, which have improved the business environment by curbing malignant competition and monopolies, thereby facilitating a restoration of prices to normal levels. This price rebound was also influenced by cyclical factors, particularly in agricultural products. Furthermore, the upward adjustment and negative convergence in PPI expectations reflect the government's focus on stabilizing growth. This indicates that the benefits from structural reforms and policies designed to optimize the business environment and boost consumer vitality are beginning to manifest in price levels.

Additionally, the FDFRC invited experts to analyze the October 2025 Fudan-ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in depth. By comparing it with the September report and assessing current economic conditions, the panel formulated three primary viewpoints: first, fiscal policy is exerting force to stimulate domestic demand while artificial intelligence drives investment; second, interest rates, exchange rates, and prices are collectively rising, with market opening measures boosting foreign exchange reserves; and third, while the Yangtze River Delta and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area are trending positively, the broader business environment still requires further improvement.

Translated by Yicheng SU

Full text in Chinese available at:

https://fddi.fudan.edu.cn/8b/53/c18985a756563/page.htm