The European Union, led by France, is betting big time on China to bring Russia back to the negotiating table for ending the Ukraine conflict.

“From Beijing to Guangzhou, I have met students who are learning our language, enthusiastic and dynamic young people, entrepreneurs keen to innovate and artists inspired by France. There is so much for us to do together. Long live the friendship between China and France!” tweeted French President Immanuel Macron in Chinese, French and English after concluding his three-day state visit to China. Macron was accompanied by the president of European Commission, Ursala van der Leyen, who is a German politician having served at key positions such as minister of defenc. Leyen was invited by Macron to be part of his large entourage comprising entrepreneurs and journalists.

France and China established diplomatic relations in 1964 when Cold War politics affected strategic choices of regional allies. China tested its nuclear capability the same year and desired normalisation in diplomatic ties with key European countries for strategic purposes. France, in the 1960s, had developed issues with the US over, for example, dollarisation of global economy and tried to register its agency in trans-regional geopolitics. China struggled economically in the 1960s and 1970s. Post-Mao, China - led by Deng Xiaoping - adopted the famous Reform and Opening Up policy in 1978. Quite amazingly, China, regarded a “poor country” in the 1960s is now six-times richer than France is. Indeed, owing to the cumulative contribution of reform and opening up, China has become the second largest economy of the world. It is now a recognised member of the nuclear club along and a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

China and the USSR tussled over boarder in the late 1960s. However, the two sides have built mutual trust and currently are strategic partners. The bilateral trade has also picked up and is now worth billions of US dollars. Given its regional strategic calculations, Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Wars ruin people, societies, cultures and economics. The Europeans have fought many costly wars in the past. In the wake of the horrific World War II, they seemed to have learnt not to wage wars but make peace. This peace was strengthened through initiatives like European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC) founded in 1952. Within a few years, the ECSC had transitioned into the European Economic Community (EEC) which, after some decades, morphed into the European Union (EU). 

The EU today is a very effective political and economic bloc of 27 European countries. Ukraine is still not a full member of the EU. It applied for membership in February 2022, the month it was invaded by a stronger neighbour, namely, Russia. Since June 2022, Ukraine is regarded as EU candidate country. Being a key European country economically and strategically, Ukraine developed stable ties with key members of the EU, the US and some countries from Africa and Asia. Pakistan, for example, imported wheat from Ukraine though the supply seemed affected due to ongoing war there. From within Western Europe, France was one of the first countries to recognise Ukraine as sovereign state in 1991. Bilateral ties have remained stable ever since even though France’s military support to Ukraine has been meager compared to the US during the Crimea crisis and the ongoing war with Russia. Politically and diplomatically, however, France along with other key EU partners, has strongly condemned Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“I know I can count on you to bring Russia to its senses, and bring everyone back to the negotiating table” said Macron to President Xi Jinping in a ‘frank’ and ‘friendly’ manner. Ukraine remained at the top of the French agenda in the conversations with the Chinese leadership. Macron acted as a soft cop while the EU president sounded like a hard cop on the Ukraine-Russia war. Macron’s soft approach reflected his other priories such as exploring business, trade and investment opportunities in China. France and the EU are already trying to lessen their reliance on Russian energy supplies. Chinese businesses can provide the much-needed technologies as alternatives such as solar panels in abundance.

“I know I can count on you to bring Russia to its senses, and bring everyone back to the negotiating table” said Macron to President Xi Jinping in a ‘frank’ and ‘friendly’ manner. Ukraine remained at the top of the French agenda in conversations with the Chinese leadership.

“China-EU trade increased by 5.6 percent in 2022, and EU investment in China rose 96.6 percent year-on-year…in 2022, China was the third largest partner for EU exports of goods (9.0 percent) and the largest partner for EU imports of goods (20.8 percent).” Importantly, as per a Global Times report “in 2022, trade in goods between China and France crossed the 100 billion euro ($109.17 billion) mark for the first time, with year-on-year growth of 14.6 percent.”

The data points to growing economic cooperation, on the one hand, between China and EU and, on the other, between China and France. Interestingly, the French president carried “French Tech” emblazoned on the chest, marking the significance of entrepreneurial realm with the underlying aim to do business with Chinese firms. Indeed, the two sides vowed to deepen cooperation in aviation, aerospace, civilian nuclear energy, green development, scientific and technological innovation. In addition, China has invited France to grace the China International Fair for Trade in Services and the seventh China International Import Expo.

Diplomatically, Macon drew President Xi’s attention to what Russia is doing in Ukraine. France’s economic interests arguably dominated discussions at bureaucratic level as Macron was accompanied by a business delegation of more than 60 executives of a variety of French firms. Nonetheless, in keeping with the French tradition of diplomatic maneuvering with great powers such as the British before the Word War II and the US post-1945, Macron did strategic signalling to not only the US but also China and Russia. With China, France seems in no mood to ‘decouple’. On Russia, the French side will keep up the diplomatic pressure through the EU. As for the US, Macron reiterated his desire of gaining “strategic autonomy.” The first two objectives seemed to have been achieved through this visit. However, ‘strategic autonomy’ is not possible until France, in particular, and the EU, in general, start acting independently in military terms. The US has many a military base in EU countries, including France. The former has far superior military technology along with more economic clout comparatively. The US is spending more on the war in Ukraine and increasing weapon supplies.

EU countries are likely to remain dependent on the American military, if not economic, support in the foreseeable future. Domestically, his China visit has helped Macron shift public attention, though temporarily, away from economic issues that a section of the French population finds hard to grasp - high inflation with low pay and pensions. Many have resorted to agitation politics. 

For China, Macron’s visit served as a diplomatic opportunity to communicate China’s strategic and economic interests not only to the European Union and France but also the US. The Xi-led China has prioritised economic cooperation with France, the EU and the US. China-US trade has increased despite Covid challenges. China has once again highlighted its economic prowess and prosperity and, importantly, its institutional approach, i.e. BRI, to engage regional economies at multiple levels whereby withdrawing from a joint business venture hurts the departing stakeholder. Moreover, China made it clear that it is maintaining neutrality on Ukraine-Russia war.

Macron’s visit is not likely to change China’s stance on Russia. In addition, as per media reports, China also raised Taiwan issue in bilateral discussion with the underlying aim to draw the French and the EU’s attention to Taiwanese leader Tsai Ing-wen’s recent visit to the US. From China’s perspective, if Ukraine is an important issue for the EU, so is Taiwan for China. Hours after Macron’s visit, China started its simulated military drills around Taiwan with the aim, on the one hand, to project its military capability and preparedness and, on the other, to deter Taiwanese pro-independence politicians not to cross the ‘red lines’.

There is a coded message for the US and its regional military allies including Japan. To ensure regional and global peace, France, the EU and the UNSC (with China and the US asmembers) ought to seek peaceful solution to outstanding issues and lingering conflicts through dialogue. Wars are not solutions; they are problems requiring solutions. Hence, if rationality is a guide, the leaders of the major powers must sit down and find workable solutions to (civil) wars, armed conflict and economic problems affecting million of people on the planet that is warming up very day. The world leaders must work to mitigate climate challenges collectively and timely as well.

The writer has a PhD in political science from Heidelberg University and a post-doc from UC-Berkeley. He is a DAAD, FDDI and Fulbright fellow and an associate professor. He can be reached at ejaz.bhatty@gmail.com

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