Fudan Think Tank Report | Impact and Reconstruction: Fudan International Strategy Report

2025复旦智库报告 |《冲击与重构：复旦国际战略报告2025》

After Donald Trump returned to power in 2025, his administration, centered on an America First doctrine, launched a global tariff war and pursued strategic retrenchment, leading to a notable loosening of the traditional international order and accelerating the global landscape's transition towards multipolarity. Trump's Liberation Day executive order in April imposed high tariffs on over 60 countries, undermining the multilateral trading system. The transatlantic alliance with Europe widened, forcing Europe to seek strategic autonomy. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continued to drain resources, with ceasefire negotiations facing repeated setbacks. Concurrent conflicts in India-Pakistan, the Middle East, and Africa intensified, exacerbating the global governance deficit. The world economy experienced severe shocks, multilateral trade mechanisms were sidelined, industrial chains accelerated their restructuring, and the economy became increasingly securitized. Domestically, the U.S. faced heightened political structural imbalances and social fragmentation. The Republican Party's MAGA faction dominated the political scene, with the executive branch significantly expanding its power. A record 221 executive orders were signed throughout the year, approximately 300,000 federal employees were dismissed, and Trump's approval ratings continued to decline.

In the face of U.S. bullying, China demonstrated its capability and determination to both confront and adeptly manage challenges. By implementing reciprocal countermeasures, it ultimately reached a tariff休战 agreement. The successful September 3 military parade commemorating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II showcased its commitment to upholding the post-war international order. The Tianjin Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) charted the development course for the next decade, promoting improved relations with neighboring countries such as India, South Korea, and Australia, and building communities with a shared future with Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia. China established the Hong Kong International Mediation Center, proposed the creation of a World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization, and actively participated in global climate governance. By expanding domestic demand, achieving technological self-reliance, and pursuing institutional opening-up, China became a crucial force in safeguarding the global free economic system. In 2025, China's economy maintained a growth rate of around 5%, with a trade surplus exceeding one trillion US dollars, injecting stability into a turbulent world. The Global South accelerated its rise, and the pace of multipolarity quickened.

Translated by Yiqian YANG

Full text in Chinese available at:

https://fddi.fudan.edu.cn/b3/98/c19047a766872/page.htm