The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States expired on February 5, 2026. This marked the collapse of the last remaining arms control pact between the two nations, following the expiration of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. Tianjiao JIANG, Associate Professor at the Fudan Development Institute, stated that the treaty's expiration signifies the disintegration of the U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control framework established during the Cold War. The two sides are no longer bound by any legally binding caps on the number of nuclear weapons, ushering in an era of uncontrolled nuclear arms competition.

The expiration of the treaty will also impact verification, data exchange, and notification mechanisms. Without insight into each other's deployed nuclear warheads, both parties will fear the other is secretly strengthening its nuclear forces, thereby intensifying the arms race. In crisis scenarios, the lack of transparency mechanisms makes it easier for routine exercises and deployments to be misinterpreted and escalate conflicts. JIANG noted that technically, the U.S. and Russia could maintain the status quo over the next year to buy time for subsequent negotiations. Both sides could issue unilateral or joint statements committing to continue observing certain rules, such as caps on deployed warheads. However, without on-site inspections and data exchange, such commitments would be unverifiable, and domestic interest groups might accuse the other side of violating the pledges and demand a catch-up. Should geopolitical conflicts arise, it would be even harder for the parties to trust each other's adherence to unilateral commitments.

Translated by Yiqian YANG

Full text in Chinese available at:

https://fddi.fudan.edu.cn/bc/d9/c18965a769241/page.htm