On February 28, 2026, the U.S.-Israel coalition forces launched military actions against Iran. The U.S. strategic approach shifted unilaterally toward promoting change through conflict, which diverged from Israel's objectives. While the former sought to maintain diplomatic flexibility, the latter aimed to push for the overthrow of the Iranian regime. The U.S. decapitation strike against Ali Khamenei may have miscalculated Iran's retaliatory capabilities. Iran responded with multi-front counterattacks to force a ceasefire. Despite internal divisions, Iran is likely to persist in its resistance. Barring large-scale civil unrest, the conflict may conclude on a limited scale. Iran has long experienced a dichotomy between the regime and society, with some civilians celebrating Khamenei's death, making it difficult for the populace to reunite behind the regime.

The Global South's reactions to this military action were highly fragmented: Gulf states in the Middle East, while seeking to avoid war, deepened their security dependence on the U.S.; South Asia managed risks, but protests in Pakistan were intense; Latin America formed three factions supporting, condemning, or remaining neutral; Sub-Saharan Africa, though lacking intense political statements, faced severe economic and livelihood impacts from rising oil prices and shipping disruptions. The conflict also generated spillover effects on security, economies, and diplomacy across various regions, and even triggered the potential risk of Cuba shifting closer to the U.S.

For Japan and South Korea, highly dependent on Middle Eastern energy, the threat of a Strait of Hormuz blockade had significant repercussions, with each country adopting distinct coping strategies. For China, the conflict has deteriorated the environment for Gulf cooperation, increased pressure on energy security and overseas interests, narrowed its strategic maneuvering space in the Middle East, and added uncertainty to the operation and payment collection of Chinese-invested projects in Africa.

Translated by Yiqian YANG

Full text in Chinese available at:

https://fddi.fudan.edu.cn/c6/2a/c18965a771626/page.htm