Professor Lijian SUN, Director of the Financial Research Center at the Fudan Deveopment Institute, provided a systematic analysis of the global economic shocks triggered by the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. He explained the systemic crisis caused by the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the profound transformation of the global order. He pointed out that vessel traffic through the Srtait of Hormuz had dropped by 95%, and that the resulting oil supply shortfall exceeds the combined scale of the two previous oil crises. This constitutes a systemic crisis capable of reshaping the global order, and a prolonged blockade would push the global economy into stagflation. 

The U.S. economic growth is highly dependent on AI investment. The AI boom represents a fragile combination of low interest rates, high risk appetite, and technological narratives. The conflict in the Middle East hs simultaneously shaken these three pillars, accelerating the breakdown of this combination. Trimp's repeated and inconsistent statements on the Middle East situation reflect a strategy of responding with falsehoods under multiple pressures. His attempts to manipulate the market have shifted from controlled chaos to a state of losing control, with clear signs of strategic fatigue.

Although the conflict appears to be a joint operation between the United States and Israel, in essence Israel is the strategic driver while the United states is being drawn along. There are fundmental divergences between the two sides in terms of strategic objectives and bottom lines, placing the U.S. in a dilemma. This crisis represents a Suez moment for U.S. hegemony in the Middle East and is accelerating its strategic retrenchment. The most likely scenario in the future is a limited U.S. withdrawal alongside an expansion of Israeli military actions, with an extremely high risk of global stagflaction.

Translated by Gaoyuan LI

Full text in Chinese available at:

https://fddi.fudan.edu.cn/d4/43/c18965a775235/page.htm