Chinese observers of the United States andChina-U.S. relations relaxed when U.S. news organizations reported, on November7 in China, that Barack Obama had been reelected president of the UnitedStates. America watchers felt that a period of uncertainty in Sino-U.S. tiesthat may have accompanied a Romney presidency had been avoided. This does notsignify great satisfaction in Beijing with bilateral relations during Obama’sfirst term or fear of the policies of a President Romney, but rather indicatesan expectation that President Romney would have progressed through a learningcurve in dealing with China that may have temporarily upset relations.

The next four years are crucial for Sino-U.S.relations. China will be led by a new leadership that is more self-confidentand more attentive to its public opinion. The further narrowing of the powergap between China and the United States will generate more anxiety inWashington. The competition between two countries in the Asia-Pacific may pickup momentum. At the same time, the world’s two largest economies will berequired to cooperate and coordinate to promote global governance and addressregional and global challenges.

Fortunately, relations with China over thenext four years present a lot of opportunities for the United States. China’snew leader Xi Jinping, who paid a successful visit to the United States inearly 2012, feels comfortable in dealing with the United States. He wantsconstructive and cooperative ties with Washington and proposed to develop a newtype of major power relationship between the two countries. Economically, Chinawill become even more important to the United States as an export market,source of foreign direct investment, and a major holder of U.S. Treasurysecurities. Also, as Beijing seeks to play a more active role in internationalaffairs with its rising capability and influence, there will be moreopportunities for the United States to work together with China to promoteglobal governance.

Second, managing the rise of major powershas never been easy and requires a contemplated grand strategy. The past mayprovide some useful clues in this regard, but in the era of globalization andinterdependence, dealing with this challenge requires more new and creativethinking than in previous epochs. Old thinking leads to the past while newthinking leads to the future. Some U.S. policy-makers may be more familiar withtraditional diplomatic strategies and instruments―such as “balance of power,”“alliance,” and “geopolitics”―and may feel more comfortable in applying theseideas to China, but this is not helpful for managing relations with China inthe 21st century.

The “rising power” phenomenonGiven the current low level of mutual trustbetween China and the United States, the two nations should start a serious dialogueabout their respective visions for the future of bilateral relations. Earlierthis year Beijing expressed to Washington an interest in building a “new typeof relationship between major countries” featuring “no confrontation, noantagonism, mutual respect, mutual benefit.” The rationale behind this proposalis that if China and the U.S. are to avoid repeating the tragedies of majorpower politics that have played out so often in history, they need to embracenew thinking and create a new and unique vision for the relationship. This notonly coincides with Beijing’s repeatedly stated desire for peacefuldevelopment, but also serves to address the biggest challenge confrontingSino-U.S. relations: how to avoid conflict between a rising power and an existinghegemon. The Obama administration should welcome this proposal and sit downwith the Chinese to discuss what this means for overall bilateral ties and howthey can work together to get there from here.

Trade and economyOn the economic front, the Chinese sidehopes that in the next four years the Obama administration will resist thetemptation of protectionism on trade issues, take steps to lower barriers tothe export of high-tech products to China, and improve the environment forChinese direct investment in the United States. Sino-U.S. trade relationsexperienced their most fractious period over the last four years due to thehigh unemployment rate and other economic difficulties confronting the UnitedStates. As the recovery gradually gains traction and exports to China furtherexpand over the next four years, the Obama administration should exerciseself-restraint in launching protectionist measures against China. Although theObama administration signaled over the past several years its intention tolessen controls of high-tech exports to China, there has been no real progressso far. If Washington can deliver something substantive on this issue in theyears to come, it will not only enhance U.S. exports to China and reduce thebilateral trade imbalance, but will also send a positive signal to Chinaregarding American intentions. Finally, in a time when Chinese firms areincreasing their overseas investment, the United States should not allowunwarranted security concerns to block Chinese investment; this will not onlycause the United States to lose more job opportunities, but also will provokeChinese retaliation against U.S. investment in China.

China’s growing defense capability mayundermine U.S. military dominance in the Western Pacific and constrain Washington’sfreedom to exercise its military muscle in this part of the world, but China’sultimate purpose is to deter the United States from intervening militarily inadjacent areas like the Taiwan Strait, not to challenge U.S. dominance in theentire Pacific. Secondly, the U.S. military should constrain its tendency toview China as an enemy and treat it as such. For instance, the Air-Sea Battleconcept that has been announced by the Pentagon is designed to guide U.S.thinking on fighting a major war in the Western Pacific under the circumstancesof the PLA developing its anti-access and area-denial capabilities. If thisconcept is allowed to reshape the entire U.S. military posture in this region,it will send a strong signal that the United States is preparing for a majorconflict with China, just as it did during the Cold War period with the SovietUnion. This will not only invite strong reactions from China, but will alsoaggravate the regional security environment.

Asia-Pacific regional policyThe last four years have witnessed growingU.S. diplomatic, economic, and security input to the Asia-Pacific region underthe strategy of rebalancing the focus of its foreign relations toward Asiastrategy. Although some may hail this as a major diplomatic achievement of thefirst Obama administration, scrutiny and some adjustments are required inObama’s second term if U.S. engagement in this region is to be healthy andsustainable.

Second, since 2010, the United States hastaken a hands-on approach to the territorial and maritime disputes betweenChina and some of its neighbors, such as Vietnam and Philippine in the SouthChina Sea and Japan in the East China Sea, even though these disputes areneither new nor easy to resolve. In the past several years, Vietnam, thePhilippines, and Japan have tried to bring in the United States to pressureChina on territorial issues in these areas; Beijing responded by standing firmagainst them, suggesting that such tactics would not work with China. In fact,U.S. involvement in these disputes has served only to inflate some countries’expectations, entrapping Washington in potential diplomatic and even militaryconfrontation with Beijing that the United States may not want, and causingChina to harden its position. Under these circumstances, Washington shouldavoid taking sides in both rhetoric and action, but rather encourage peacefulmeans and creative diplomacy on all parts.

The rise of China as an engine for regionaleconomic growth has greatly enhanced the momentum for East Asian cooperation.For instance, in spite of the flare-up of Sino-Japanese dispute over the DiaoyuIslands and cooling-down of their respective bilateral relationships sinceSeptember 2012, China, South Korea, and Japan agreed in November 2012 to openthe negotiations for a trilateral free trade agreement. Meanwhile, China hasalso joined hands with ASEAN countries, Japan, South Korea, India, Australia,and New Zealand to establish Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP), which promises to become the world’s largest FTA with a population ofabout 3 billion and an economic output of $20 trillion. In its second term, theObama administration may continue to pursue TPP or Asia-Pacific cooperation ingeneral, but it should downplay its ambition to slow down or even derail EastAsian cooperation, as such efforts will neither succeed nor benefit the imageof the United States in the region.

http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2012/12/11-china-obama-wu