Is Mexico Replacing China in US Supply Chains?

作者:Hanzhen Ouyang,Shuo Shi 发布时间:2024-06-29 来源:LSE Global South Unit Working Paper Series+收藏本文

复旦大学管理学院管理学博士后欧阳晗振与复旦发展研究院应用经济学博士后石烁的合作论文“Is Mexico replacing China in US supply chains”,最近获伦敦政经学院全球南方项目工作论文系列收录。该论文从附加值贸易的角度揭示了墨西哥依赖中国供应链的事实,从而论证美国很难依靠“贸易转移”策略实现对华“脱钩断链”。


Hanzhen Ouyang

School of Management, Fudan University

Shuo Shi

Fudan Development Institute, Fudan University


In 2023, Mexico exceeded China and became the largest trade partner of the US. Will Mexico further replace China and rise to a strategically vital supplier for US supply chains? is working paper shows that although US supply chain sources are shifting from China to Mexico, China remains the primary value-added source of Mexican exports to the US market. Moreover, Mexican exports to the US rely on low-skill sectors, whereas more Chinese exports are high-skill goods. e current US trade shift is likely caused by China’s FDI inflows to Mexico’s traditionally competitive export sector. However, Mexico lacks edge-cutting manufacturing firms to substitute China in US supply chains. erefore, the US strategy of “trade diversion” cannot support Mexico’s role in reducing the US supply chain dependence on China. e US should rethink a sustainable trade framework that promotes stable cooperation with China. 


Supply Chains; Mexico-China competition; USMCA; Trade diversion