精英框架与印尼公众对

中国“一带一路”倡议的态度：

来自一项全国性调查实验的证据

Elite Framing and Public Attitudes toward China’s Belt and Road Initiative in Indonesia: Evidence from a National Survey Experiment

布尔哈努丁·穆赫塔迪

Burhanuddin Muhtadi

雅加达国立伊斯兰大学

社会与政治科学学院政治学教授，

复旦发展研究院访问学者

Professor of Political Science at the 

Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, 

Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University in Jakarta; 

Visiting Scholar at 

Fudan Development Institute

江天骄

JIANG Tianjiao

全球人工智能创新治理中心研究员，

复旦发展研究院金砖中心副主任

Research Fellow, 

Center for Global AI Innovative Governance

Deputy Director of 

Center for BRICS Studies, 

Fudan Development Institute

2026年10月10日10:00-11:30

10:00-11:30, October 10, 2026

复旦大学智库楼203

Room 203, Think Tank Building, 

Fudan University

复旦发展研究院

Fudan Development Institute 

复旦金光思想库

Fudan-Sinar Mas Think Tank

英文

English

Indonesian opinion toward China's Belt and Road Initiative is routinely called ambivalent, but is that ambivalence malleable? A face-to-face national survey experiment with 7,870 Indonesians, the largest probability sample yet, randomly assigned one of four elite frames or a neutral control. Fewer than one in ten had heard of it. Frames moved opinion asymmetrically: the foreign labour frame depressed support more than twice as much as the debt frame, while the South–South cooperation narrative Beijing favours had no detectable effect. Generation Z carried the labour frame entirely; respondents near Chinese projects resisted it. Proximity dampens hostility rather than amplifying it.